“There is an urgent need to increase tests to avoid uncontrolled pandemic”, warn researchers from the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Porto (FMUP) and CINTESIS, at a time when Portugal is beginning the lifting the COVID-19 restrictions. And they give the example of France, where the increase in testing capacity is a sine qua non condition for the lifting of restrictions to take place.

Researchers identify the screening of newly infected contacts as a more important need than increasing the total number of tests. “All contacts, even if asymptomatic, should be tested for Covid-19”, they say, and they point out that this measure is what explains “the sucess of Vietnam”. This country has the highest number of tests per confirmed case (791 versus 10 in Portugal), with 270 cases of infection and no deaths for a population 97 million inhabitants.

The researchers emphasize that “the number of tests per confirmed case is a very important measure in this phase of lack of definition where many screening tests will be carried out and that continuing to look at the percentage of positive tests gives“ a false sense of safety”.

The team authored the editorial of May’s edition of the Bulletin of the World Health Organization (WHO), entitled “Simulation of the effects of COVID-19 testing rates on hospitalizations” (http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.20.258186). They consider that “the increase in the number of diagnostic tests to COVID-19 was probably one of the most important factors in order to prevent the collapse of the national health system in Portugal”.

considera que “o aumento do número de testes diagnóstico à COVID-19 foi, provavelmente, um dos fatores mais importantes no sentido de evitar o colapso do sistema nacional de saúde em Portugal”.

Researchers estimate that the increase in the number of tests that occurred between March 22 and April 5 may have prevented more than 5,000 regular and 1,000 intensive care hospitalizations, with savings of about 27 million euros.

In that 15-day period, the number of tests per million inhabitants was seven times greater than that recorded on March 22. Currently, that number is already 35 times higher.

To outline different scenarios, this team of scientists created a tool that can simulate the number of hospitalizations avoided and the economic costs saved by carrying out more diagnostic tests on COVID-19. The new tool is available at online, em http://simtestcovid.gim.med.up.pt.

“This simulator allows to test different scenarios, based on the country’s epidemiological situation and variables related to the use of health care by patients with COVID-19”, explains Bernardo Sousa-Pinto, one of the authors of the article.

According to the FMUP professor and CINTESIS researcher, scenarios for simulation are already predefined in eight countries, including Portugal.

The team of researchers from the Department of Community Medicine, Health Information and Decision of FMUP and CINTESIS includes Bernardo Sousa-Pinto, João Almeida Fonseca, Bruno Oliveira, Ricardo Cruz Correia, Pedro Pereira Rodrigues, Altamiro Costa-Pereira and Francisco Nuno Rocha-Gonçalves.