Researcher from CINTESIS Integrates Group that Developed Mathematical Model to Help Control the Pandemic

A group of researchers from Portugal and Spain has developed a mathematical model for understanding the dynamic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 that is relevant for defining the deconfinement strategy and for effective control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

the model has been described in the scientific article  “Optimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic: controlled sanitary deconfinement in Portugal”, recently published in the Scientific Reports/Nature.

The study, in which Wilson Abreu, from CINTESIS – Center for Health Technologies and Services Research/Nursing School of Porto (ESEP), collaborated, proposes a model based on the mathematical theory of optimal control, combined with the analysis of public opinion and the use of social networks.

The goal is to keep the number of infected people and hospitalizations below levels that are considered critical, allowing for safe deconfinement while ensuring the functioning of the health care system.

“The pandemic of COVID-19 forced policymakers to enact mandatory confinements to fight the massive contagion. However, after that phase, societies are forced to find a balance between the need to reduce contagions and to reopen their economies,” said the researchers.

The model was applied to the Portuguese population, using data made available by the national public health authorities between March and July 2020.

According to the researchers, “this model is a tool to support public health decisions, as it allows testing various pandemic management scenarios, anticipating the spread of the virus and evaluating the effectiveness of specific measures, ensuring the response of health services.”

The team comprises researchers from CINTESIS, the Center for Research and Development in Mathematics and Applications (CIDMA) at the University of Aveiro, the Polytechnic of Leiria, the ACES Pinhal Litoral, the University of Vigo, and the University of Santiago de Compostela, and it takes place in the framework of the project COMoMat-PandCovid19, lead by the University of Aveiro, and the Spanish project Predico.

The project COMoMat-PandCovid19, in which CINTESIS participated, was supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), in the scope of the first edition of the call RESEARCH 4 COVID-19.